The conflict between the US, Israel and Iran has escalated. It's now in its second week, with attacks continuing across the Middle East. The US and Israel have ramped up military operations. Iran's hitting back in ways that hurt the global economy, and civilians are living in constant fear.

USA:s mål och militära aktioner

USA:s uttalade ambition i konflikten är att krossa den iranska regimen och tvinga den till en ny relation med Washington, enligt Mellanösternanalytiker Aron Lund vid Totalförsvarets forskningsinstitut (FOI). President Donald Trump har specificerat målen till att slå ut Irans robotsystem och resterna av landets kärnprogram. Däremot betraktas frihet för det iranska folket inte som ett genuint seriöst mål, menar Lund.

Since the escalation, US and Israeli forces have hit more Iranian defense systems and key leaders. But Peter Haldén, who teaches strategy at the Swedish Defence University, says the US endgame isn't really clear. Trump could declare victory no matter what happens, Haldén reckons—though his best-case scenario is obvious. That's not the same as actually having a clear goal and exit strategy.

The US recently hit Kharg Island, Iran's main oil export hub that handles almost all the country's crude shipments. På Truth Social skrev president Donald Trump att målen var "alla militära mål" på ön.

He said he'd chosen not to destroy the oil infrastructure for "decency's sake." Trump hotade dock att omedelbart ompröva det beslutet om Iran, eller någon annan part, stör den fria och säkra passagen för fartyg genom Hormuzsundet. Ön, som ligger omkring 30 kilometer från det iranska fastlandet, har tidigare varit föremål för diskussioner inom Trump-administrationen om ett potentiellt övertagande.

Israels aggressiva hållning

Israel has similar goals and sees this as a 'fantastic window of opportunity' to 'act maximally' against Iran while Trump's in charge, says Aron Lund.

Mastheads

Iran's been the glue holding together groups like Hezbollah and Hamas—both long-standing problems for Israel.

Israel's security policy got a lot more aggressive after October 7. Both Israel and Iran could see this as a war for survival, Haldén says. Israel's now trying to eliminate as much as possible that could threaten them from Iran. But Haldén doesn't think any serious Israeli analysts actually believe they can topple Iran's theocracy.

Irans svar och de ekonomiska konsekvenserna

Iran's responded by closing the Strait of Hormuz, which has hit the global economy hard. Beyond attacks on Israel, Iran's also hit airports and hotels in Gulf states. One reason, according to Haldén, is that Iran wants to pressure Washington through these countries. Another is painting a picture of the Middle East in flames—creating uncertainty about how this ends.

So far, Iran's regime is still in power. But oil prices are becoming a headache for Trump, Aron Lund says. The US doesn't seem ready for a long fight—they were talking weeks, and time's already slipping by. War's expensive too—air defense systems protecting US bases alone cost a fortune, Haldén points out. He stresses this conflict is just one piece of a long, complicated struggle.

A temporary system collapse in Iran is possible, Haldén explains, but that's worlds away from actually installing a new government.

Vardagen i krigets skugga

Civilians are caught in the middle of this escalating conflict, living under constant threat. Tobias Gisle and his family, who live in the region, spend every night in a shelter. They rely on a mobile app with two types of warnings: first an alert telling them to get near a shelter, then a real air raid siren demanding they get inside immediately.

Barnen, Raphael och Tamara, får sin undervisning via Zoom från olika delar av lägenheten. Too many missiles coming from Iran for the kids to go to school right now, Tobias says. Their days are defined by warning sirens and the constant readiness to run for cover.

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This conflict is part of a long-running regional dynamic with uncertain outcomes for everyone involved—fighters and civilians alike.

Den här artikeln har skapats med hjälp av AI.